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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."