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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.